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 Bergströ,m Martin,Erikstad Stein Ove,et al.A Simulation-Based Probabilistic Design Method for Arctic Sea Transport Systems[J].Journal of Marine Science and Application,2016,(4):349-369.[doi:10.1007/s11804-016-1379-1]
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A Simulation-Based Probabilistic Design Method for Arctic Sea Transport Systems


A Simulation-Based Probabilistic Design Method for Arctic Sea Transport Systems
Bergström Martin1 Erikstad Stein Ove1 Ehlers Sören2
Bergström Martin1 Erikstad Stein Ove1 Ehlers Sören2
1. Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway;
2. Department of Ship Structural Design and Analysis, Technical University of Hamburg, Hamburg D-21073, Germany
cargo ships|cargo vessels|arctic shipping|ice-going ships|risk-based design|goal-based design|ice|LNG
When designing an arctic cargo ship, it is necessary to consider multiple stochastic factors. This paper evaluates the merits of a simulation-based probabilistic design method specifically developed to deal with this challenge. The outcome of the paper indicates that the incorporation of simulations and probabilistic design parameters into the design process enables more informed design decisions. For instance, it enables the assessment of the stochastic transport capacity of an arctic ship, as well as of its long-term ice exposure that can be used to determine an appropriate level of ice-strengthening. The outcome of the paper also indicates that significant gains in transport system cost-efficiency can be obtained by extending the boundaries of the design task beyond the individual vessel. In the case of industrial shipping, this allows for instance the consideration of port-based cargo storage facilities allowing for temporary shortages in transport capacity and thus a reduction in the required fleet size / ship capacity.


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Received date:2016-3-18;Accepted date:2016-6-8。
Foundation item:Supported by the MAROFF Competence Building Project Funded by the Research Council of Norway on “Holistic Risk-Based Design For Sustainable Arctic Sea Transport”
Corresponding author:Bergström Martin
Last Update: 2016-11-24