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Research on probability distribution of port cargo throughput
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- Title:
- Research on probability distribution of port cargo throughput
- Author(s):
- SUN Liang TAN De-rong
- Affilations:
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships in the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment. Gross cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables determining each aspect of cargo throughput for every cargo ship arriving at the port. Probability distribution was determined using the Wald equation. The results show that the variability of gross cargo throughput primarily depends on the different times required by different cargo ships arriving at the port. This model overcomes the shortcoming of previous models: inability to accurately determine the probability of a specific value of future gross cargo throughput. Our proposed model of cargo throughput depends on the relationship between time required by a cargo ship arriving at the port and the operational capacity of handling equipment at the port. At the same time, key factors affecting gross cargo throughput are analyzed. In order to test the efficiency of the model, the cargo volume of a port in Shandong Province was used as an example. In the case study the actual results matched our theoretical analysis.
References:
1. YANG Shenhua.GUAN Keping Application of spreadsheet to forecasting port throughput [期刊论文] -Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science & Engineering)2005(05)
2. CHEN Ning.ZHU Meiqi.YU Zhenwen Comparing two forecast models of ports handling capacity 2005(09)
3. XU Changxin.YAN Yixin.ZHANG Ping Prediction model of port throughput based on system dynamics [期刊论文] -Port & Waterway Engineering2006(04)
4. HUI E C M.WILLIAM S.WOONG K C Forecasting cargo throughput for the port of HongKong:error correction model approach 2004(04)
5. Lam WILLIAM H K.PAN L P.WILLIAM S Forecasts and reliability analysis of port cargo throughput in HongKong 2004(03)
Memo
- Memo:
- The Shandong "TianJun" Soft ScienceFoundation
Last Update:
2010-06-22